The MMO industry is a strange thing. Where else in the gaming world does a genre suffer from such a monopoly mentality? For years, Everquest was at the top of the heap. Every MMO that was announced was hailed as being a "EQ-killer," and for the most part, every one was a commercial dud. Then Warcraft came along and took the crown from Everquest, and the exact same thing happened!

Thus far, the MMO marketplace has only ever had room for one all-out success at a time. It's this problem that killed the brilliantly conceived Marvel MMO that so many of us had geeked out about. Microsoft Game Studios' Shane Kim summed up the issue nicely;

When we first entered into the development and agreement of the development of Marvel Universe Online, we thought we would create another subscription-based MMO. And if you really look at the data there's basically one that's successful and everything else wouldn't meet our level or definition of commercial success. And then you have to look [and say]: 'Can we change the business model for that?

And that's really the question -- can the business model for the MMO market be changed? With the recent confirmations of Star Trek Online and Knights of the Old Republic MMO, and the upcoming releases of DC Universe Online, three big companies are going to have to find a way to do just that.

All three of these have something special built in from the get-go -- they're licensed projects. Historically, this has led to a mixed bag of results. Star Wars Galaxies, for example, had one of the most successful first months of any MMO to date. The pre-existing fan base made it an easy sell. The problem? It wasn't very good. In less than 18 months there were unconfirmed reports that a particular Friday night saw only 10,363 players online. Whether it's true or not, it certainly illustrates a true point: if an MMO isn't stellar out of the gate, it's not going to succeed. Galaxies made a number of sweeping changes to the gameplay, but it was too late. Modifications to a successful game (like Warcraft) are usually welcomed with open arms, but the spiral of failure that begins with a dissatisfied launch can't just be pulled out of.

Still, that fan base should help to get people on board. Although they may not have stolen the crown from WOW, games like Age of Conan and Lord of the Rings Online have been able to hold their own and maintain a respectable subscriber base. Are they profitable? That's not for me to say -- but they're certainly fairing better than unlicensed MMO's like Pirates of the Burning Sea.

So we've established that basing an MMO on an existing product gets people in the door, and being good keeps them their. But what makes them good?

People are a strange breed -- we like new things, but we don't like change. It's a hard balance to nail down for an MMO developer -- how do we take what everybody already loves and rework it in a way that feels fresh and new? A big part of World of Warcraft's success is born from this question. WoW's gameplay isn't much more than a hybrid of Everquest and Diablo set within the Warcraft universe. So how do these new MMO's take what's good about what's old and make it something new?

The recently announced Knights of the Old Republic MMO stands a pretty good chance of pulling this one off. The "old" they can borrow from doesn't have to be a successful MMO like Warcraft. As a matter of fact, it doesn't have to be an MMO at all. Taking the pre-existing structure of the original KOTOR games and adapting it for online play shouldn't only be enough, it should be the only way to go. The "old" is their tried and true gameplay. The "new" is getting together with a gang of your Jedi pals and taking down a Rancor in a dungeon together. Combine this with the Star Wars license and the huge marketing push EA will likely put behind this, and you have a real contender for a successful mega-hit in the MMO market.

Star Trek Online, on the other hand, doesn't have a lot going for it beyond the name. Much of the discussion we've heard so far mimics the pre-release talk about Star Wars Galaxies. "Star Trek was never about a single character, ship or even planet; Star Trek was always about an entire universe. And MMORPGs are uniquely suited to create such a thing and allow players to explore every inch." Those are the words of Jack Emmert, Chief Creative Officer for Cryptic Studios. Here's the problem: MMO gamers hate exploring. They like changing scenery and they like breaking shit. Wandering around aimlessly? That's too much like life.

The other downside to Star Trek Online is the development studio behind it, Cryptic. They originally set the MMO world ablaze with City of Heroes, and were then attached to the ill-fated Marvel Universe Online. On top of that they have been developing Champions Online (based on the table-top RPG and a spiritual successor the CoH). It's not that they're bad (Heroes wasn't for me, but it has it's fans) -- but don't they sound stretched a little too thin? Blizzard hasn't tried to bang out World of Starcraft of World of Diablo. Two reasons I can think of: 1. It takes a hell of a lot of focus to successfully maintain a persistent world and 2. Competing against yourself is just bad business.

Not much is known about DC Universe Online at this point either, but what we can speculate has it's ups and downs. The Jim Lee look has a lot going for it and the prospect of being some Level 3 random shit disturber in Metropolis who gets thumped by the Level 70 Elite Superman definitely has it's appeal. But at the same time it's being developed by SOE, the same people behind Everquest and Galaxies. Despite SOE's spotty track record, DCU Online has one big thing in it's corner: the PlayStation 3. As often as it's been talked about it's been cancelled -- major MMO's on a home console. Sure Everquest tried it with a stripped down PS2 version, and Final Fantasy XI did it (though not a lot of people wanted to drop the coin needed for the hard drive et al), but nobody has tackled it in the current generation -- a generation in which online play has become a staple rather than a luxury. Will a move to the console (coincidentally, a move which was planned on the 360 for competitor Marvel Universe Online) be enough to set it apart and garner it an audience that MMO's have yet to tap?

It's going to be an interesting time in the MMO universe over the next year or so as things inch closer to development and the dust eventually settles. But it's an exciting time too -- I can't think of anyone who isn't a fan of at least one of these three properties. I'm looking forward to giving all of them a whirl. What say you?

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